Ah, it’s that time of year again. Time for me to become irrationally angry at a group of old white people voting for awards that don’t actually mean anything. I can remember the exact moment last year, finishing up my Oscars post, that I decided to delete my lengthy rant about how Green Book would probably win and replace it with the far more hopeful prediction of Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma. “It’s very possible,” I wrote at the time, “that the members of the Academy became aware of all of this criticism [re: Green Book] before voting, and not wanting to come out of this year looking like fools, have opted to cast their votes elsewhere.”

We now know that the fool… was me. 

A year has passed, and although I am older and wiser, the pool of nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards does not display much growth. The nominations continue to be #sowhite, with not a single person of color nominated in the supporting actor or actress categories, and women have yet again been boxed out of the race for best Directing. Are we surprised? No! Are we angry? Yes! Will I be soap-boxing more throughout this post? Read on to find out!!!

Before I get into the categories, I have some disclaimers. These are copied and pasted from previous years with a couple of edits.

1. Every year, I do my best to catch up with as many of the nominees as I can, even if that means sitting through some extremely boring/bad contenders. That being said, I did not manage to get to every single film I would have liked to see before writing this list, and I will make note of that as we go through the nominees. From this point forward, any film in bold italics is a film I saw, and any film in just italics is one I didn’t see. I will say that this year, my biggest regret is missing Jojo Rabbit. I sat down all ready to watch it at home last week and then realized it isn’t available to rent, stream, or even buy, so I’ll just have to catch up with it later. Love u, Taika. 

2. I am not going to go through every single category, because it would be ridiculous to pretend I know anything about what merits, for example, “good sound mixing.” In addition, I didn’t manage to catch up with most of the international contenders (but Parasite had better win), animated/documentary shorts, or feature-length documentary nominees (though I did catch Honeyland and I’m rooting for North Macedonia, the country of my people!!!). Basically, I don’t feel comfortable making predictions for categories where I haven’t seen at least two of the films. And yeah, that used to say ‘three’ of the films, but shit got weird in some of the categories this year. Looking at you, Best Actress.

3. This is the third year I’ve written this post. In 2018, I was correct on 6/13 of my predictions, and in 2019 I got that number up to a whopping seven. This year, I am hoping that an extra dash of pessimism will help push me to eight, which would be 61% correct — technically a passing grade, but still super embarrassing! Again, I beseech you, do not place any bets using my predictions. 

Costume Design

Nominees:

The Irishman — Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit — Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker — Mark Bridges
Little Women — Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood — Arianne Phillips

Will Win & Should Win: Little Women

Sadly, this is going to be my only prediction for Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, a film I loved very much (you should listen to our podcast episode about it!), but one made by a woman and thus destined to be overlooked. However, I am going to be optimistic just this once, because Jacqueline Durran is truly a giant in the world of period costume design. Her credits include Pride & Prejudice, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Mr. Turner, Darkest Hour, and Anna Karenina, among many other immaculately costumed films — including this year’s 1917! This is her seventh nomination, but would only be her second win (the first for Anna Karenina in 2012, though she absolutely should have won for Atonement for that emerald dress alone). Because the costumes in Little Women are the most elaborate (to the naked eye, anyway) out of all the films in this category, and because Durran has been recognized so many times before, I believe she will secure the win. 

Music (Original Song)

Nominees

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 — Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman — Music by Elton John; Lyric by Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough — Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Into The Unknown” from Frozen II — Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up” from Harriet — Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo

Will Win & Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

Has anyone even heard any of the other songs in this category? Seriously though, it’s Elton John.

This is also my one and only opportunity to gripe about the fact that Rocketman, a movie far superior to Bohemian fucking Rhapsody, was almost entirely snubbed, and I do not understand why. Taron Egerton did not play Elton John as a caricature but rather as a nuanced and vulnerable individual, AND he actually sang, AND there was ACTUAL GAY SEX in a movie about an ACTUAL GAY MAN. I’m just. I just. Fuck Bohemian Rhapsody.

Music (Original Score)

Nominees

Joker — Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women — Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story — Randy Newman
1917 — Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — John Williams

Will Win: Joker

I know that a lot of people are saying this score is good and that’s why I think it’ll probably take the award, but I don’t get it. Maybe I’m just not musically sophisticated enough to understand the supposed brilliance of this composition, but to me, it sounded like a 2-hour-long groan. Kind of like how Joker felt. So maybe that makes it successful? Anyway, I will give Hildur Guðnadóttir props for being the only woman nominated in this category, and hopefully this win will give her the opportunity to work on films way better than this one.

Should Win: Little Women

This score is absolutely delightful, which is how I would describe the work of Alexandre Desplat in general. After all, he has been working consistently with Wes Anderson since 2009, and what’s more delightful than a Wes Anderson film??? This is the kind of magical score that makes your heart leap into your throat at just the right moments, elevating the material without distracting from it. Still, it’s sprinkled through with just enough quirk to remind you of the composer’s singular voice and vision, which is in lock step with the spirit of the film.  

Cinematography

Nominees

The Irishman — Rodrigo Prieto
Joker — Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse — Jarin Blaschke
1917 — Roger Deakins
Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood — Robert Richardson

Will Win & Should Win: 1917 

Whether or not you think 1917 is an effective film, there is no question that Roger Deakins’ cinematography here is masterful. I would be shocked if anything else took this award — for if we learned anything from Birdman, it’s that the Academy loves an unbroken take, even if it’s artificial. Add in sweeping landscapes and gorgeous displays of shadow and light and you have an almost certain victory. In fact, if this doesn’t win, I’ll pull a Herzog and eat my shoe. Btw, my shoe is a rain boot, so you can imagine how confident I am.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees

The Irishman — Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit — Screenplay by Taika Waititi
Joker — Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Little Women — Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes — Written by Anthony McCarten

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

This is the part where I reiterate my regret over not yet seeing Jojo Rabbit. I have heard a lot of mixed reviews of this film, but I’m willing to bet I’d like it based on my feelings about Waititi’s previous work. This is one of those movies I assumed had an original screenplay, but it is actually adapted from the book Caging Skies by Christine Leunens. I’m mostly predicting this for the win because although Jojo Rabbit secured six nominations, this might be its only chance to beat out the competitors, and it seems like the academy is eager to reward it for something.

Should Win: Little Women

I think we can all agree that this is the best adaptation of Little Women to date. To me, it’s also the best film in this category, with the caveat that I’ve not seen Jojo Rabbit or The Two Popes (as if, lol). Unfortunately, some Oscar voters apparently had trouble understanding a fairly simple nonlinear timeline, and because Gerwig is a woman this is seen as bad writing instead of ~complicated genius~ as it would probably be if she were a man. Yes, I stole my thesis from the below tweet.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees

Knives Out — Written by Rian Johnson
Marriage Story — Written by Noah Baumbach
1917 — Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood — Written by Quentin Tarantino
Parasite — Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho

Will Win: Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood

Were I being an optimist this year, I would not be making this choice, but I am trying to learn from my mistakes. I didn’t hate OUATIH, but I didn’t love it either. For one thing, it was way too long, which for me is the mark of a screenplay which could have used fewer pages. But, much like with Jojo Rabbit, the number of nominations this film received implies a desire to reward it for things, and the fact that it was placed in the ‘comedy/musical’ category at the Golden Globes means its chances of winning Best Picture are drastically reduced. 

Should Win: Knives Out 

I really hope I’m wrong about this, because Knives Out has such a perfect screenplay, and for some insane reason, this is the film’s only nomination, but the fact that it was snubbed so hard makes me feel like it won’t win. There aren’t a lot of films by white dudes I’ll intensely go to bat for, but if you had to nominate another white male director, why couldn’t it have been Rian Johnson instead of Todd fucking Phillips???? Anyway, fuck everything, and if you’re interested in more of my thoughts on the brilliant Knives Out you can read them here.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Tom Hanks — A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins — The Two Popes
Al Pacino — The Irishman
Joe Pesci — The Irishman
Brad Pitt — Once upon a Time...in Hollywood

Will Win & Should Win: Brad Pitt for Once upon a Time...in Hollywood

Again: I am not OUATIH’s biggest fan, but out of the people in this category, I would choose Brad Pitt, because his and Leonardo DiCaprio’s performances were what made the film work for me at all. He’s won for this performance at pretty much every opportunity so far, so I’m betting he’s a shoe-in.

That being said, there are a lot of other people I would have put into this category, most notably Kang-Ho Song in Parasite, who gives a hilarious, charming, and ultimately heartbreaking performance. The fact that Parasite is nominated for so many things and yet its cast is completely ignored speaks to the endless racism of this establishment, but shout out to Bong Joon-Ho for calling the Oscars “local” — a reminder that our rage over the lack of international representation at our own country’s dinky little award show also speaks to our very American sense of self-importance.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Kathy Bates — Richard Jewell
Laura Dern — Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson — Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh — Little Women
Margot Robbie — Bombshell

Will Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story

As with Brad Pitt, Laura Dern has been sweeping the best-supporting awards with this performance. And the thing is, it’s a good performance! Laura Dern is always good. Is this her career best? Probably not. But everyone loves her, she did exactly what she needed to do in the film, and she deserves a win in general for all the work she’s put in throughout her career, so she’s going to get it. I will say that the speech she gives mid-way through the film about mothers and fathers is really wonderful, thanks in part to her delivery. I’m not furious that Laura Dern is going to win; I’m happy for her.

Should Win: Florence Pugh for Little Women

I want to begin with the caveat that yes, this is a category full of white women, and there are a lot of other people I’d nominate, including Park So-dam for Parasite and Ana de Armas for Knives Out. Still… my favorite supporting performance of this year was delivered by none other than Florence Pugh, who breathed new life into the infamous Amy March. Not only did Pugh play this character at two distinctly and believably different ages, but she also took a character who’s often thought of as bratty, selfish, snobby, and annoying, and fleshed her out into the complicated and realistic woman she was always meant to be. Seriously, this performance is a revelation, and Florence is our KWEEN (we also praised her back when we discussed Midsommar, a movie for which she also deserves all the awards). 

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees

Antonio Banderas — Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio — Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver — Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix — Joker 
Jonathan Pryce — The Two Popes

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker 

I think you might have figured out by now that I really, really hated Joker. I am not going to get into all the reasons why, because in my opinion, this movie does not belong at the Oscars and therefore does not deserve time and energy put towards it in my Oscars post. That being said, we all know Joaquin Phoenix is going to win this award. Of all the things about the film, his performance is perhaps the least offensive; he did a good job with bad material because he’s Joaquin Phoenix, and I really do believe that he’s one of the best actors of our generation. Do I wish he’d won this award for something else instead — perhaps for his performance in The Master, or Her, or a film I haven’t even seen but have heard great things about, You Were Never Really Here? Sure I do! During his acceptance speech, I will think about all the times he has been truly great, and I’ll feel happy for him.

Should Win: Adam Driver for Marriage Story (?)

I say this with a major caveat, which is that I have not yet caught up with Pain and Glory, and I have heard many people say that Antonio Banderas delivers a career best performance in the film (Emily thought he was good too; you can read her review here!). However, I do think what Adam Driver is doing in Marriage Story is extremely commendable. When compared to the huge, unhinged performance Phoenix gives in Joker, Marriage Story’s Charlie probably seems to the academy like a role any actor would be able to play. But what is so astounding about Driver’s performance is that by the end of the film… I did not hate this man. Maybe you know this about me, but I have a very low tolerance for men who do terrible things. But Driver imbues the character with a genuine good-heartedness that comes through even in some of his worst moments, and although I ultimately sympathized more with Nicole (Scarlett Johansson), I found myself wanting to forgive Charlie. On top of that, Driver’s rendition of Sondheim’s “Being Alive” is truly one for the books.

Honorable mention to the other Adam (Sandler) for Uncut Gems, because what the hell, man! 

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees

Cynthia Erivo — Harriet
Scarlett Johansson — Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan — Little Women
Charlize Theron —  Bombshell
Renée Zellweger — Judy

Will Win & Should Win: Renée Zellweger — Judy

I have not seen Judy, and because of that, I don’t feel totally comfortable weighing in on this category when we can be about 99% sure that Renée Zellweger is going to take this award. The reason I’m saying she should win is mostly because I do think she is a unique talent who deserved so much more than the absolute bullshit this industry gave her — much like Judy herself. So yes, even though Scarlett Johansson was brilliant in Marriage Story and Saoirse Ronan’s monologue in Little Women made me weep, I’m rooting for Renée.

Directing

Nominees

The Irishman — Martin Scorsese
Joker — Todd Phillips
1917 — Sam Mendes
Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood — Quentin Tarantino
Parasite — Bong Joon Ho

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood

This is one of the toughest categories to predict. I’m ruling out Parasite because of racism, The Irishman because of length, and Joker because of personal optimism. That leaves Quentin Tarantino and Sam Mendes, both of whom I think could take this award. I’m going to say it’ll go to Tarantino because the Academy is a big circle jerk and loves to vote for movies about movies, and because this is his most critically-acclaimed film in years. 

Should Win: Bong Joon Ho for Parasite

It’s too bad about racism, because Parasite is about as close as a film can get to perfection, and Bong Joon Ho could direct all the other men in this category straight off a cliff if he wanted to. More on Parasite in a second, but first...

This will be my last soap box moment, because you know I have to say it: there are no. Women. Nominated. In this category. No Greta Gerwig for Little Women, no Lorene Scafaria for Hustlers, no Lulu Wang for The Farewell, no Marielle Heller for It’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, no Mati Diop for Atlantics, no Alma Har’el for Honey Boy, no Céline Sciamma for Portrait of a Lady on Fire, no Melina Matsoukas for Queen & Slim… the list goes on, and on, and on, as it does every year, as it has every year, as it probably will in the years to come. This is a problem. Everyone has said it already, but we can’t seem to say it enough, so we have to keep saying it: THIS IS A PROBLEM.

Best Picture

Nominees

Ford v Ferrari — Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers
The Irishman — Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
Jojo Rabbit — Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi and Chelsea Winstanley, Producers
Joker — Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
Little Women — Amy Pascal, Producer
Marriage Story — Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers
1917 — Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers
Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood — David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers
Parasite — Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers

Will Win: 1917

1917 has pushed its way to the front of this race quite quickly; it was released at the tail-end of the year, and unlike the other frontrunners, there was not a ton of buzz leading up to its premiere. That being said, this film won Best Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, so I think this is a fairly safe guess. A few weeks ago, I wrote about 1917, arguing that it’s not a film as soulless and gimmicky as some members of film twitter might have you believe. Still, for Best Picture, this is a safe and boring choice. It’s not going to cause an outrage like Green Book did last year, because it’s a wholly inoffensive film. It is a well-made movie about the horrors of war, not the first of its kind to win this award and certainly not the last. I don’t feel great about it winning, but I’m not angry. My feelings on the matter are, as they say, “meh.” 

Should Win: Parasite 

Of all the movies I saw and talked about this year, Parasite was the one that came up the most. I think it’s because this is a movie unlike anything a lot of us have ever seen, and in a world where so much of the content we consume is recycled material, sitting down and watching a movie like Parasite is a uniquely thrilling experience. It defies genre and expectation, a wild ride that is still firmly rooted in a chilling sort of realism. Much like Get Out was the movie of 2017, I think we’ll look back on Parasite as the movie of 2019. Whether or not the Academy agrees doesn’t really matter; after all, the Oscars are very local.