Hello! It is hard to believe, but Survivor is almost back in our lives, and this season seems poised to be one of the best yet. For its 20th season, Survivor brought back some of the best people to ever play the game for Heroes vs. Villains. For its 40th season, the show is bringing back 20 winners (not necessarily the 20 best but we’ll take it), to compete against each other. Because all of these people have played before, this is less a “first impressions” blog and more a chance for us to talk about players we have seen before and for Mary to make snap judgments on those winners who are new to her. We will also be guessing, as best we can, where each person will be voted out (the first time--Edge of Extinction is, sadly, back), so read on to hear what we have to say about each of these 20(!) former winners!

Winners we both know (and love!)

Sandra

Todd: We had to start with the Queen of Survivor herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine. We both have seen her player in all 3 of her seasons, and honestly, if not for a bad tribe swap in Game Changers, we could be talking about a 3-time winner here. She’s just that good. It is rare that a person comes into Survivor cocky and it is well-deserved, but Sandra is really as good as she says she is. I am hopeful that the Queen can fend off the other claimants to her throne, but it will be an uphill battle.

Mary: Sandra is the absolute queen and I hope she stays in for a decent amount of time. I think that Sandra and Rob serving as mentors last season really solidified that they’re both formidable opponents, and unfortunately that doesn’t bode well for their chances. I expect this crew to be more paranoid than ever, so a two-time winner could be considered a huge threat. That being said, Sandra’s strategy of “any name but mine” might work in a group that’s hyped up on their own paranoia.

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge. Sandra finally gets to be a jury member.

Mary: I think Sandra will either stay until final four OR get voted out immediately because she’s won twice already.

“Boston” Rob

Todd: Rob “Boston Rob” Mariano has, in many ways, been the face (and the head!) of the Survivor franchise. He has played in 4 seasons before this (or 5 if you count IoI, which, let’s be real, no one should). Yes, Redemption Island felt like it was built to be a showcase for Rob, but that doesn’t negate what he was able to accomplish there. Rob is a classic Survivor archetype: a hard worker, good at challenges and puzzles, who is still willing to stab you in the back if he needs to. And seeing him play with Amber again? That’s Survivor gold!

Mary: I’m very excited about the potential for seeing Rob and Amber compete against one another--especially if they both make it post-merge. I think my brain is so subconsciously excited about this prospect that I’ve been having dreams about what it would be like if you and I were competing against each other on Survivor. Amber was even in one of my dreams! I told her I loved her and Rob’s story of how they met. Rob is another big threat, even though he doesn’t have the two-time winner status of Sandra. What works against Rob in this case is that he and Amber have both won before, meaning that the series has already given his family 2 million dollars. That could be a huge deterrent to the other tribe members keeping him in the game. They might say he “doesn’t need the money.”

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-merge. Look for Rob to be one of the first boots, though if anyone seems designed to emerge victorious after a month on the Edge, it’s Rob. 

Mary: I think Rob’s strategy relies on him manipulating people into his web. That being said, I think others might be ready to get him out of the game quickly, so I predict he goes early.

Amber

Todd: Amber Brkich Mariano is one person that I think most people were shocked to see come back, and you can count me among that number. She won Survivor: All-Stars and is the person from the earliest season to be returning (she first appeared in Survivor: Australian Outback). I am very excited to see Amber play with (or, more likely) without Rob, and hopefully she will be able to prove all the people who didn’t think she deserved her win wrong.

Mary: I don’t really know much about Amber, but I’m truly amped to see how Survivor hypes up her and Rob’s Survivor love story. Amber seems both nice and manipulative at the same time--I mean, hey, she played Rob so she could win--which sounds lovely to me.

Prediction:

Todd: Post-merge. I am not sure people will view Amber as a threat early on, so I think she makes it to the jury.

Mary: I agree that she’ll make it to the jury! 

Winners that we both know (at least somewhat)

Ethan

Todd: Ethan Zohn is kind of like the Jimmy Carter of Survivor winners. Just kind of a bland dude on the game itself, but since playing the game he has spent his time fighting (and beating) Hodgkin’s Lymphoma twice and giving back through his non-profits. Ethan is much older now than he was when he last played (Season 8, All-Stars) and I am excited to see how the time away will affect how he plays.

Mary: Having just watched Ethan’s season, I’m wondering how he’ll fit in now that he’s older. He was definitely not a huge player in his winning season. He won by being liked best, more than anything else, and being decent in challenges. Ethan didn’t make a lot of sneaky moves and he played before people fully figured out that “honor and integrity” weren’t essential parts of the game.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-merge. Seems like this season will have an Old School vs. New School vibe, and I am not sure anyone wants Ethan sticking around for long because of the story he could tell at Final Tribal.

Mary: I think Ethan might stay around a bit, actually, but not make it to the merge. He won’t be the first to go, but he won’t make it to the jury. 

Danni

Todd: Danni Boatwright is still an enigma to me, and we have most recently been watching her winning season, Guatemala, but I am still not sure what to make of her. My guess is other players won’t be able to read her either, which could either be to her advantage or to her detriment. However, odds are that Danni will be able to go pretty far once again.

Mary: We just watched Danni’s winning season and I still think the only reason she won was because everyone hated Stephenie more (TBH I am scared of her eyebrows, so I get it). 

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge. I think most people won’t think to vote her out, just as they did in Guatemala, until it is too late.

Mary: Right! I think she could very easily sneak through. People just don’t think about her. 

Parvati

Todd: What can be said about Parvati “Black Widow” Shallow that the Internet has not already said? She nearly won Heroes vs. Villains, and she was able to beat Amanda Kimmel in Fans vs. Favorites. She has played a different game each time, forming the dreaded “all women alliance” in Fans vs. Favorites and having to play from the bottom with Russell Hantz in HvV, even when everyone wanted her out from Day 1. It seems like she will come in with a big target on her back, but I wouldn’t count Parvati out.

Mary: I truly hate how everyone views Parvati as some women’s alliance guru. Ugh. 

Prediction:

Todd: Final 3. The last two times she played, she made it here. Look for her to three-peat.

Mary: Hmm...I think that might be exactly why she doesn’t make it to the final three! I think she’ll make it post-merge though.

Tyson

Todd: What do you do with a Tyson Apostol? Truly one of the more outgoing and crazy-seeming Survivor winners (though Tony gives him a run for that title for sure), Tyson should make a lot of waves and probably enemies throughout his time on the game. He never met a snarky comment that he wouldn’t say. I think his mouth is likely to get him in trouble, and if other allies like Rob are already gone, Tyson will probably be close behind.

Mary: Tyson is an absolute sociopath. That’s all I know about him. I remember that he took a lot of joy in making others upset and loved hurting them. 

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. People may think he is too erratic to keep around.

Mary: Pre-Merge because he is bonkers. 

Adam

Todd: Adam Klein is one of my favorite winners of the last few years, mostly because his story throughout Millennials vs. Gen-X is a wild one to watch. He seems to pogo in the esteem of his tribemates throughout and obviously the fact that he is playing for his dying mother is very emotional. Mostly, I am excited for him to play again because I think he will do a good job contextualizing all the crazy things that are happening throughout the season. He is a fan as well as a player, and I am excited for the energy he will bring to the season.

Mary: I honestly do not remember him even though I watched this season, which is telling.

Prediction: 

Todd: Final 3. This feels a bit like a stretch, but I could see Adam going pretty far this season.

Mary: Post-Merge! 

Sarah

Todd: Sarah Lacina famously played like a cop in her first season, and then played like a criminal in Game Changers, which led to a victory. Is there anything deeper we should take from this? I’m not sure. Am I stalling because Sarah is kind of a boring winner who was able to use dumb advantages in a season that kind of ate its own tail when it came to idols and other advantages? Yes. Still, the other winners will probably overlook Sarah initially and then wake up and vote her out before the finale.

Mary: Her narrative of cop/criminal is baffling to me, and it made me roll my eyes every time I heard her mention it--and she mentioned it a lot. 

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge.

Mary: Pre-Merge. People don’t like a cop attitude, and they don’t like a criminal attitude either.

Winners Todd Loves (And Mary Doesn’t Know)

Yul

Todd: Yul! Yul Kwon is a beloved winner and another player that I’m sure many fans thought we would never see again. He is another older winner, and it will be interesting to see how he adapts his game for season 40 and a newer, faster style of playing Survivor. Still, I am excited to see how he fares in this season.

Mary: I’m excited to get to see Yul in action! 

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. I am not sure he will be able to overcome how much people respect his first game, and unless a bunch of the “meat shields” band together, I don’t see him lasting long.

Sophie

Todd: Sophie Clarke’s initial game is often overlooked, but my memories of Sophie are positive (though dim). She has a good shot, I think, at flying under the radar and managing to wend her way to the Final 3, if she doesn’t get screwed by the Survivor gods. Regardless, I am excited to see how she performs this season. Like a lot of these winners, it is just nice to see her on my TV again.

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge.

Kim

Todd: Kim Spradlin’s season, One World, is often cited as one of the worst seasons in Survivor history, full of unlikable characters and a boring narrative. However, one of the reasons why the narrative is deemed “boring” is because Kim manages to form an alliance on day 1 and then steamroll the competition for the rest of the game. The question is whether she will be able to do so again, or if she will be able to fly under the radar when she played such a well-respected game her first time around.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. My guess is that she will be to this season as Tony was to Game Changers: too much of a threat to keep around early.

Denise

Todd: I love Denise Stapley! On her first season she was fun and had a great dynamic with Malcolm that led them much further into the game than anyone might have expected given their scenario. She essentially pulled off an underdog-style game, and I could see her doing so again. She’s great with people, however, and that is often a downside when it comes to Survivor. Hopefully she will be able to use that to her advantage.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. I don’t want it to happen, but I could definitely see it happening.

Natalie

Todd: I didn’t think much of Natalie Anderson coming into her first season, as I have not seen her seasons of Amazing Race with her sister, but seeing her come into Survivor and go on the warpath after Nadiya is voted out first and then her ally Jeremy is voted out was simply breathtaking television. I am not sure if she will be able to recreate that magic, but I could see her making it pretty far.

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge.

Jeremy

Todd: Jeremy Collins is so likable and such an enjoyable person to root for and I think that will be his downfall. He came back and won Second Chances, but I am not sure he will be able to recreate that momentum for Winners at War. I’m just not sure people will be able to look past how dominant he was in his 2nd game out.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge.

Wendell

Todd: On Ghost Island, Wendell Holland played a pretty great game, but so did his ally Dominic Abbate. The deciding factor? Wendell’s relationship with Laurel, who initially wasn’t even a part of their alliance but who became so close to Wendell by the end of the game that it was basically a no-brainer who would win when Laurel was asked to cast the deciding vote at Tribal Council. Without a strong ally this time around, I am not sure how well Wendell will do.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. Ghost Island is one of the more recent seasons, and I don’t think anyone wants to give Wendell another chance to make it to the Final Tribal.

Winners Todd Feels Indifferent About

Tony

Todd: Tony Vlachos had a spy shack when he won, and a spy bunker when he lost. My guess is he will have some sort of spy treehouse this time around. I also think people might underestimate him a little because of how badly he did during Game Changers. But if he gets up to his old Tony antics, he will not be long for Season 40.

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge.

Michelle

Todd: No one on this cast is a “goat” in Survivor terms (though some might argue they are the GOAT). Sadly, Michelle Fitzgerald might be the closest to a goat. I don’t think many of the other castaways respect the game she played and I would imagine she comes into this game with a chip on her shoulder. If she can use the other winners’ low expectations to her advantage, she could go far in the game.

Prediction: 

Todd: Final 3. Not sure she will be able to pull out another victory, but I can definitely see her making it to the end.

Nick

Todd: In David vs. Goliath, Nick seemed to hop from one alliance to the next, never staying in one place for too long. The whole season seemed a little like a game of musical chairs where if you were too big a threat or seemed to have too much power, you went out next. However, Nick was able to orchestrate some pretty impressive strategic moves. I’m worried he might try to come out of the gate too strong, but if he can find some people to work with him he might be able to go far.

Prediction:

Todd: Pre-Merge. My guess? He tries to start another “Mason-Dixon” alliance with Boston Rob and Rob cuts his throat.

Winner that still gives Todd nightmares

Ben

Todd: Ben Driebergen is a winner who still gives me nightmarish flashbacks when I think about his victory. With a few years to think about it, I still do not like how his season ended, but that’s not his fault necessarily. His story is also an inspirational one, which does not bode well for his chances here. However, it will be interesting to watch him play in a season where he is not the only threat that people are trying to take out.

Mary: Very much looking forward to your reaction to this guy. I have heard tales of the fire making challenge whispered many times, no matter what season we’re watching. 

Prediction:

Todd: Post-Merge. I am sure people might be gunning for him early, but it seems possible he will be able to slide into the merge, and probably pretty far, before anyone can vote him out.