For the first time since I started doing our annual “BSG’s Guide to the Oscars That You Probably Should Not Reference For Your Oscar Pool Because I Don’t Know What I’m Talking About,” I actually… don’t have that many complaints. At least not when it comes to the nominations. Were there oversights this year? Absolutely. Are there films nominated that I consider to be trash? No question. But considering the many disappointments and failures of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 nominations (and let’s not even get started on the wins), I am pleasantly surprised by this year’s selections.

This is a historic year in several different ways. For the first time ever, two women are nominated for best director AT THE SAME TIME. One of those women, Chloé Zhao, is the first woman of color to ever be nominated for best director. Steven Yeun and Riz Ahmed are also firsts in their categories — first Asian American person and first Muslim person to ever be nominated for best actor, respectively. Every acting category has at least one person of color (low bar, but still), and none of the nominees for best picture are as maddening or offensive as something like 2018’s Green Book.

Maybe these improvements have something to do with last summer’s BLM protests, which brought even more visibility to the ongoing systemic racism in our country, or this past year’s uptick in violent crimes against the AAPI population. Maybe sitting around inside for a full year has forced Academy members to do some introspection. Maybe not being able to see anything in a theater has an impact on our perception of award-worthy filmmaking. I’m sure it’s a combination of all of these factors, and I’m also sure that as much positive change as we’ve seen this year, the Academy is not done making stupid mistakes. After all, they're still extremely far behind where they should be in terms of representation within their organization, which continues to be reflected in their choices. I just hope that this year marks an actual turning point rather than a blip.

Anyway, let’s get on with the predictions!

Before I get into the categories, I have some disclaimers. These are copied and pasted from previous years with a couple of edits.

Every year, I do my best to catch up with as many of the nominees as I can, even if that means sitting through some extremely boring/bad contenders. That being said, I did not manage to get to every single film I would have liked to see before writing this list, and I will make note of that as we go through the nominees. From this point forward, any film in bold italics is a film I saw, and any film in regular italics is one I didn’t see.
I am not going to go through every single category, because it would be ridiculous to pretend I know anything about what merits, for example, “good sound mixing.” In addition, I didn’t manage to catch up with most of the international contenders, animated/documentary shorts, or feature-length documentary nominees. Basically, I don’t feel comfortable making predictions for categories where I haven’t seen at least two of the films. And yeah, that used to say ‘three’ of the films, but shit got weird in some of the categories this year. Looking at you, Adapted Screenplay.
This is the fourth year I’ve written this post. In 2018, I was correct on 6/13 of my predictions, and in 2019 I got that number up to a whopping seven. 2020 was a big year for me, as I correctly predicted 9/12 categories (after cutting Animated Feature, which is simply going to be Disney or Pixar every single time and I have to accept that). 9/12 is actually pretty good, and I’d be happy if I managed that again. Anything higher seems a bit too optimistic, given my track record, but we’ll see what happens.

Costume Design

Emma. — Alexandra Byrne
Mank — Trish Summerville
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — Ann Roth
Mulan — Bina Daigeler
Pinocchio — Massimo Cantini Parrini

Will Win & Should Win: Alexandra Byrne for Emma.

To me, this is an obvious choice, and I’ll be really surprised if it goes to anything else (and downright confused if it goes to Pinocchio, which I did not know existed until these nominations were announced). Byrne has been nominated for six Oscars for her costumes, and she won for Elizabeth: The Golden Age in 2008. Emma. is a film I would’ve liked to see nominated for more this year, especially in the adapted screenplay category, but this is all we’ve got, and a win here would be well-deserved. The costumes are of a piece with the film’s overall aesthetic, the mannered femininity and pastel color palette with the occasional pop of hot yellow to catch you off guard.

Music (Original Song)

“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah) — Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Húsavík” (Eurovision Song Contest). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Will Win & Should Win: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

I’ll be honest—I picked this as “will win” before I even listened to it, because you just know the Academy loves Hamilton, and therefore the academy loves Leslie Odom, Jr. One Night in Miami is definitely a regret of mine as for films I haven’t caught up with yet, and I plan to watch it as soon as possible. But I just went through all of the songs on this list, and while I also like “Fight for You,” there is something incredibly stirring about Odom Jr.’s voice that lends this song a cinematic quality that most of the others in this category lack. That being said, shout out to “Húsavík” for actually being performed in the film as part of the plot. I feel like that should maybe be a requirement, but I guess we don’t have enough movie musicals these days for that to be feasible.

Music (Original Score)

Da 5 Bloods — Terence Blanchard
Mank — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Minari — Emile Mosseri
News of the World — James Newton Howard
Soul — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

Will Win & Should Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul

I think we can all agree that Trent Reznor. Really, though, Soul is lovely, and this score is a wonderful accompaniment to a film about jazz music: it’s unpredictable without being distracting, full of little surprises and grace notes, just like the film itself.

Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah — Sean Bobbitt
Mank — Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World — Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland — Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Phedon Papamichael

Will Win & Should Win: Joshua James Richards for Nomadland

Once again, this is an obvious choice, but sometimes the answer is right in front of you and you should not run away from it. Nomadland provides a sweeping and gorgeous view of America, and watching it feels like wandering through a book of nature photography. There are so many images that come to mind when I think about this film, from the swallows circling the cliffs to Fern’s silhouette as she walks through one of the nomad camps, her tiny figure buoyed by the glow of her lantern. These images reflect the story’s themes of isolation, grief, and freedom in a way that seems unplanned and effortless, but are doubtless a result of real artistry.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm — Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad
The Father — Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland — Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami — Kemp Powers
The White Tiger — Ramin Bahrani

Will Win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm — Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad

I did not see this film, and I probably won’t, because one Borat film was honestly more than enough for me. My impression is that this film holds a certain significance in its timeliness, mostly for the Rudy Giuliani of it all, and for that reason the Academy will probably acknowledge it in this category.

Should Win (?): The Father — Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

I have not read the source material for The Father, but I was really impressed by the way this film puts the viewer in the headspace of a person with failing memory. The film is based on director Florian Zeller’s 2012 play Le Père, but it doesn’t feel overly “staged” in the way that some play-to-film adaptations do. Even the monologues feel appropriate in context, and I never felt like I was watching something that was meant to be performed in a different medium. All of this makes it a really successful adaptation. That being said, there are a few films in this category that I would have liked to see (yes, even Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) before proclaiming The Father as my personal winner, so take this decision with a grain of salt.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Judas and the Black Messiah — Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas
Minari — Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman — Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal — Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Aaron Sorkin

Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Aaron Sorkin

Hollywood loves Aaron Sorkin. This is his fourth Oscar nomination for a screenplay (in the combined adapted and original categories), but he hasn’t won since 2010’s The Social Network. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is up for a multitude of awards this year, but this is the only award I could see it taking, so this is my not-so-confident guess. What did I think of this movie, you ask?

It was fine.

Should Win: Promising Young Woman — Emerald Fennell

I am on record as adoring this film, and you can read all about how much I loved it in the blog post I wrote, so I’m not going to go into it too much more here. I will say that this is the only film in this category that went in a genuinely surprising direction, and I have so much admiration for the risks Fennell takes with her screenplay. It is possible that she could take this award, but I’m hoping that my lack of optimism here will work in my favor and reverse-jinx it.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Sacha Baron Cohen — The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. — One Night in Miami
Paul Raci — Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield — Judas and the Black Messiah

Should & Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah

Daniel Kaluuya has been racking up awards for his performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah, and it seems that this is definitely his award to lose—for good reason. Kaluuya embodies every character he plays from his fingertips to his toes, and he’s quickly proving to be one of the most versatile actors of his generation. Here, he perfectly captures Hampton’s Chicago drawl and the charisma that made him such a powerful revolutionary while also imbuing Hampton with a gentle solemnity, particularly in his scenes with Dominique Fishback as Deborah Johnson (who was also wonderful and deserving of a nomination for her work here). There is some question as to whether Kaluuya should even be in this category when this performance could definitely be considered a lead—really, Kaluuya and Stanfield are co-leads here—but lead actor is almost certainly going to Chadwick Boseman (more on that later).

Actress in a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova — Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close — Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman — The Father
Amanda Seyfried — Mank
Youn Yuh-jung — Minari

Will Win: Amanda Seyfried — Mank

For once, I don’t have a very good predictor of who is going to win in this category, because at the Golden Globes, Jodie Foster won for some movie I’ve never heard of and is nowhere to be found on this list of nominations. If I were being pessimistic, I would say that Glenn Close would win for Hillbilly Elegy because Glenn Close is in a Leo DiCaprio situation despite having been nominated approximately sixty-seven times in this category has never won, but Hillybilly Elegy has been so derided by critics and audiences alike that I just don’t know if it’s going to happen for her this year. So, my prediction goes to Amanda Seyfried, who’s much-lauded performance as Marion Davies in Mank actually made me want to pay attention to what was happening on-screen, quite a feat for one of the three most boring movies I watched this year.

Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung — Minari

The Oscars have a history of ignoring non-white cast members in ensemble films, even when a film sweeps in every other category, as we saw last year with Parasite—a film which won best screenplay, director, and picture while its cast was nominated for nothing. It seems the Academy heard our feedback this year and actually managed to nominate two of Minari’s cast members. Unfortunately, I don’t see either of them winning, but I especially hope I’m wrong about Youn Yuh-jung, who plays Soonja, the family’s “not like other Grandmas” Grandma. She gives a performance that is at times hilarious and at others devastating, a truly stellar supporting turn in that the film would not function half as well without her.

Actor in a Leading Role

Riz Ahmed — Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins — The Father
Gary Oldman — Mank
Steven Yeun — Minari

Will & Should Win: Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

As I’m sure you know, Chadwick Boseman passed away from colon cancer in 2020 at the age of 43. This is obviously devastating. Chadwick Boseman was an immeasurable talent who gave us so very much with his art, and it is impossible to know how much he might have accomplished if he’d had more time. This, his final performance, is truly a powerhouse, even if it comes in a flawed film, and I fully expect the academy to give him this award as a celebration not just of his work as Levee Green, but all of his roles, from Jackie Robinson to James Brown to King T’Challa himself.

I will say that I am also a huge fan of Riz Ahmed’s performance as Ruben in Sound of Metal, and that I am so thrilled for his nomination and recognition here. In fact, this category is stacked as hell, with the exception of Gary Oldman, who can go away now, thanks.

Chadwick-Boseman-Oscars-Campaign-Ma-Raineys-Black-Bottom.jpg

Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day — The United States v. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby — Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand — Nomadland
Carey Mulligan — Promising Young Woman

Will Win: Frances McDormand — Nomadland

This would not be Frances McDormand’s first win, and she is good in basically everything, but what she is doing here merits some special attention and I imagine the academy will recognize that. McDormand has the challenge of acting opposite nonprofessional actors in much of this film, to blend in with people who are actually living a nomadic lifestyle and are telling their true, lived-in stories to the camera. There are a lot of actors who would have a hard time sinking their teeth into something like this without seeming, for lack of a better word, performative, but McDormand is so natural here and manages such easy chemistry with the non-actors in the film that even though she’s a recognizable movie star, one forgets almost instantly that she’s playing a part. It sets her apart from the other nominees, and that’s why I’m predicting this win for her.

Should Win: Carey Mulligan — Promising Young Woman (?)

Again, I talk a lot about how incredible I think Mulligan’s performance is in my blog post about Promising Young Woman, so I’m not going to make this post any longer than it already is by repeating myself. That said, I have heard good things about both Vanessa Kirby and Andra Day’s performances, so I can’t say with absolute certainty that Mulligan should win. I also admire McDormand’s performance a lot, so I definitely won’t be upset if/when she does take the award, and Davis is good too, though I would honestly put her in the supporting category despite her titular role. Basically, there is a lot to like in this category, so whatever happens I’m not gonna be mad, but Carrie is the winner in my heart.

Directing

Thomas Vinterberg — Another Round
David Fincher — Mank
Lee Isaac Chung — Minari
Chloé Zhao — Nomadland
Emerald Fennell — Promising Young Woman

Will & Should Win: Chloé Zhao — Nomadland

Nomadland is the kind of movie where the direction takes center stage. Zhao guides us through this landscape and this story without a hint of heavy-handedness, touching on so many different themes and ideas without telling us what we should think or how we should feel but instead allowing room for discussion and exploration. She manages to balance a large-scale vision of America with an intimate portrait of one single character, threading the stories together with invisible stitches. With only two films under her belt, Zhao has already established herself as an auteur, and I will be so excited when she (probably, hopefully) becomes the first woman of color to win this award (and only the second woman...ever).

Best Picture

The Father (David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, producers)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, producers)
Mank (Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, producers)
Minari (Christina Oh, producer)
Nomadland (Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, producers)
Promising Young Woman (Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, producers)
Sound of Metal (Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, producers)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, producers)

Will & Should Win: Nomadland (Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, producers)

Surprise! I’ve already said so much about Nomadland, not just here but also on the podcast! If you want even more reasons why I think this film is wonderful, you can listen to our discussion of it here. It is so exciting when a win for best picture is representative of our current moment in time, and that’s why best picture winners that serve as a snapshot of the present are so much more likely to survive in our collective memory than those that don’t (like, remember The King’s Speech? Me neither). Nomadland has so much to say about the way our country treats our senior and elderly population and those in working class jobs, and it also has a lot to say about late-stage Capitalism, and it says all of these things without saying them, meaning it lets the viewer find their way to those conclusions. This is what good storytelling does, what important storytelling does, and this film feels important to me in the same way that Parasite felt last year (and still feels). So, I’m going out on an optimistic note in this year of firsts. Hopefully I don’t regret it.